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Feud of the dayThe Economy

Will there be a recession in 2027?

21%chance▼ 1 since Sep 30

769,271 contracts · closes Jan 31, 2028 · odds are live bid/ask midpoints on Kalshi (CFTC-regulated)

Every fight · biggest money first

Chance

The Midterms
Will Democrats win the House in 2026?
23,844,504 contracts
91%chance
Blue side ↗
“Democrats are taking back the House.”
buys Yes on Democratic Party
Red side ↗
“Republicans will hold the House.”
buys Yes on Republican Party
The Midterms
Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?
8,992,640 contracts
67%chance
Blue side ↗
“Democrats will flip the Senate too.”
buys Yes on Democratic Party
Red side ↗
“The Senate stays red.”
buys Yes on Republican Party
Climate & Energy
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
443,359 contracts
74%chance
Blue side ↗
“The climate crisis is real.”
buys YES
Red side ↗
“The climate crisis is overblown.”
buys NO
Immigration
Will ICE deport more than 450,000 people in FY2026?
29,041 contracts
44%chance
Blue side ↗
“The deportation numbers are mostly talk.”
buys NO
Red side ↗
“The mass deportations are actually happening.”
buys YES
The Economy
Will 2026 inflation come in above 4%?
16,627 contracts
49%chance
Blue side ↗
“Tariffs are pushing prices up.”
buys YES
Red side ↗
“Inflation is under control.”
buys NO
Climate & Energy
Will EVs be above 30% of US car sales by 2030?
15,133 contracts
44%chance
Blue side ↗
“EVs are the future.”
buys YES
Red side ↗
“EVs are a fad that's already dying.”
buys NO
Health
Will US measles cases top 7,000 this year?
3,419 contracts · Settles on case counts, not causes. The 'why' is your argument to have.
33%chance
Blue side ↗
“Anti-vaxxers are bringing measles back.”
buys YES
Red side ↗
“The measles panic is overblown.”
buys NO
The Economy
Will New York City lose at least 2 billionaires this year?
1,098 contracts
51%chance
Blue side ↗
“The rich aren't going anywhere.”
buys NO
Red side ↗
“The rich are fleeing New York.”
buys YES